 CDDs Approve Estates Road Paving and Handicapped Swings
A four hour meeting of the two Westchase Community Development Districts (CDDs) on March 2 featured the districts’ third presentation on a new irrigation control system for the community. While a definitive solution to the current system’s shortcomings remained elusive, the CDDs supervisors did make progress in approving a road paving contract for The Estates portion of Harbor Links. Supervisors also approved spending up to $16,000 on handicapped swings for both Baybridge and Glencliff parks. Continues...
Public Meeting for Proposed Westchase Gym Rescheduled to March 23
A public meeting to receive input on a proposed 9,000- to 10,000-square-foot, multi-purpose gymnasium in The Bridges has been postponed from March 4 to March 23. The gym, proposed by Hillsborough County’s Parks, Recreation and Conservation Department, will be presented to those attending the March 23 meeting at 6:30 p.m. in the multipurpose room at Westchase Elementary School. The public meeting will be held to allow Parks, Recreation and Conservation Department staff to discuss the plans with residents and receive their input. Continues...
Westchase Real Estate: Shrinking Values and Signs of Hope
In February 2009, WOW asked five Realtors who make their living – and live in Westchase – whether the community’s home prices had finished their free fall. Their prediction? Hold on tight ’cause we haven’t hit bottom yet. This past month we examined the accuracy of last year’s predictions and asked them to look into their crystal balls for 2010.
In a year that saw the stock market gain back a significant portion of its losses – a year whose final quarter produced 5.7 percent economic growth – did Westchase home prices dodge Realtors’ crystal balls of doom?
We won’t sugar-coat it. The short sale answer is no.
While even trained economists find predicting economic matters a tricky and fickle enterprise, Westchase’s Realtors were right on the shrinking pile of money for 2009. A peek at average Westchase home prices last year makes clear that the piles of dough Westchase homes brought their sellers kept shrinking over the past 12 months. Hardest hit in 2009 were some of Westchase’s oldest homes. Houses located in the villages of The Enclave, Berkeley Square, Glencliff, Glenfield, Bennington, Keswick Forest, Woodbay and Wycliff saw their average square foot prices drop nearly $25, or just over 17 percent in one year. Their square foot prices are now just $10 above their 2003 average and eight dollars below the typical 2004 square foot price for those neighborhoods. The likely cause? Coldwell Banker’s Doug Wood stated that Westchase oldest homes – particularly those that lack any upgrades from builders’ original light fixtures, floors, cabinets and counter-tops – create a serious drag on surrounding house prices when sold at foreclosure.
West Park Village’s square foot prices (Village Greens’ sales information was grouped with The Greens in WOW’s analysis) faired nearly as poorly in 2009. After peaking at nearly $185 per square foot in 2006, West Park’s homes experienced the second steepest dollar decline in Westchase in 2009, losing just over $20 per square foot. The hit to the neighborhood’s average prices may be partly blamed on significant price decreases and foreclosure rates among West Park’s condominium units in Arlington Park and Worthington. These units have taken a toll. In 2009 Westchase’s newest homes in West Park Village had an average square foot price of just $122, largely comparable with Westchase’s oldest homes off Countryway Boulevard. In 2009 West Park’s average square foot price was $25 less than that of The Greens. Even homes in The Fords were selling for six dollars more per square foot than in West Park.
 If there was a village that fared best in the Great Westchase Slide of 2009, it was The Fords. Its five villages saw average square foot prices drop from $137.69 to just $128.25, a decrease of about $10, or just 6.86 percent.
What’s the cumulative year-over-year damage? Excluding buyers who carried equity from previous homes into their Westchase home purchases, any resident who purchased his home after mid-2003 now likely owes more on his mortgage than his home is worth. What percentage of Westchase is this? Dyan Pithers of Coldwell Banker offered, “Fifty-four percent of Westchase homes have sold since June 2003.”
The fall from 2006’s nosebleed prices in Westchase has been shocking. At the inception of the housing bubble in 2003, most Westchase homes in neighborhoods like The Fords, The Bridges, Keswick Forest, Bennington, Wycliff and Woodbay averaged in price between $110-113 per square foot. Three years later housing prices prompted longtime Westchase homeowners to pat themselves on the back for their stupendous investments. In 2006 the average square-foot price for Countryway Boulevard villages (except The Shires and Harbor Links/The Estates) had jumped 62 percent to $180. Homes in Harbor Links/The Estates jumped 53 percent from $143 per square foot in 2003 to nearly $220 in 2006. On a percentage basis, homes in The Bridges fared even better, jumping 72 percent to $190 per square foot.
In late 2006, investors and other home buyers bolted for the exits. Tampa Bay home prices had outstripped salaries and any semblance of sanity. The Florida foreclosure fiasco began with a whimper and soon escalated to a roar, producing the fourth highest foreclosure rate in the nation. Despite its favorable location, Westchase wasn’t spared. At the end of 2009, homes in The Enclave, Berkeley Square, Glencliff, Glenfield, Bennington, Keswick Forest, Woodbay and Wycliff were 32.28 percent off their highs. Harbor Links/The Estates homes were down 27.9 percent. If you bought in The Fords in 2006, your home’s price declined just over 29.66 percent. West Park Village fell 33.6 percent, leaving its square foot price just a single dollar above where it was in 2003. And The Bridges? In WOW’s sample, that neighborhood experienced the most serious decline in Westchase. A 1,900 square foot home in The Bridges, purchased for $360,000 in 2006, is now worth just $224,000 – a 38 percent decrease.
Which neighborhood fared best in the slide? While The Greens wins the award for most unscathed survivor, the math likely provides little comfort for 2006 buyers there. While declining by the smallest percentage in Westchase, Greens homes are still worth nearly 26 percent less than they were just four years ago.
Does 2010 hold glimmers of hope?
There are some modest signs that the steepest part of the slide is past. In all but the Countryway villages, 2009’s declines were less than 2008’s by a handful of percentage points. Nevertheless, it’s cold comfort to Bridges homeowners to know they lost five percent less in 2009 than in 2008 when 2009’s decrease was still over 13 percent.
The story may be different for some of Westchase’s priciest homes. Those in Harbor Links/The Estates, The Greens and The Fords all slid less than 10 percent in 2009 after decreases in the upper teens the year prior. Is this a positive sign? It’s difficult to know for sure. Greater numbers of homes priced below $300,000 are selling than more expensive homes, which may be skewing averages. Yet newer homes with significant upgrades in Westchase are also maintaining their prices better than their counterparts, which may be insulating home prices in these newer, more expensive villages.
Based on statistics from RealtyTrac, the number of Westchase homes involved in the foreclosure process also hasn’t worsened over the past year. In fact, it’s improved a hair – in contrast to a strong worsening trend throughout Tampa Bay. In December 2008, roughly 70 Westchase homes were involved with the foreclosure process, a number that dipped to 66 in February of 2009. A year later 62 Westchase homes were involved with the foreclosure process in February 2010. The rate is just under two percent of Westchase homes, more than half as low as RealtyTrac’s 4.77 percent foreclosure rate for all of Florida in 2009.
Emphasizing Westchase’s attractive location, Coldwell Banker’s Dyan Pithers offered some further good news about Westchase prices. “Westchase isn’t depreciating as heavily as other areas in the Tampa Bay,” she said.
While none of the Realtors polled back in 2009 offered much hope for home prices that year, their predictions differ for 2010. While other Realtors predicated stabilization or further declines, Anne Hart of Century 21-Bay West proved the most bullish about Westchase prices we’ve seen in 24 months. “Westchase’s prices have definitely hit the bottom,” she stated. “The lowest price homes could go up depending on their condition and upgrades.” Hart added, “If you are planning to stay in your home for at least five years, buy now. I have said this all year, especially in the lower price range.”
More hope lies among statistics related to foreclosures and short sales (when banks accept the sale of a property for less than what is owed on the mortgage). Wendy Ross of Florida Executive Realty observed, “Westchase typically carries about a quarter to a third of its listings on the market as short sale or bank-owned (foreclosed) properties. Compared to the rest of the state – especially drastically hit areas like South Florida and some other planned communities in Tampa Bay – it’s a handful.”
 Another hopeful sign is the significant decline in the number of homes listed for sale in the Westchase area. In late 2004 and early 2005, between 50-75 single-family homes appeared for sale each month in the 33626 zip code. The inventory of these unsold homes, however, exploded to 375 per month in mid-2007, putting significant downward pressure on prices. By December of 2009, the inventory of unsold, single-family homes had fallen to 163, a 40 percent decline in just 12 months. While this may bode well for future price stabilization, in late 2009, such homes in 33626 were still selling on average at just 94 percent of their list prices. The average sales price/list price differential for single-family homes has trended between 93-95 percent since June 2007, the period of the worst price declines.
Yet there may be a silver lining to this cloud if you are a Westchase homeowner with equity who is looking to sell in the next two months. In coming months, the Federal Reserve may end its support for keeping mortgage rates low. Unless it is renewed by Congress, the federal tax break for home buyers also ends this spring. (Under current rules, homebuyers must have a contract by April 30 and the sale must close by June 30.) Because short sales are notoriously problematic and time-consuming, the number of Westchase homes offered by owners in the free and clear is shrinking quickly. Those “above water” homes that are offered for sale in March and April will likely see a number of interested buyers looking to lock in their purchases before the tax credit ends and mortgage rates rise. With the laws of supply and demand at play, these homes’ prices may benefit in the short-term.
Coldwell Banker’s Nancy Wood echoed this observation. “Buyers must now be mindful that inventory has decreased significantly and homes that are priced properly, updated, and well-maintained will be popular and in higher demand by other buyers. If they fall in love with a house, they should not wait to make an offer.”
But what do Westchase Realtors’ crystal balls hold for Westchase home prices in 2010? As mentioned, Hart believes Westchase prices have hit bottom. Ross declined to hazard a guess, stating she wished she owned a real crystal ball. Jason and Dyan Pithers of Coldwell Banker, however, saw more pain on the horizon. “We don't believe we are at the bottom yet,” they stated. “The combined effects of a high unemployment rate, delinquent mortgages and unsuccessful loan modifications will in turn lead to more short sales and foreclosures. Although we have seen less than our share so far, there is no way to predict when we’ll see the bottom.”
Doug and Nancy Wood see a mixed bag. “Real estate prices in Westchase have stabilized but may not have hit rock bottom yet,” the couple offered. Nancy Wood, however, added a caveat. “There are quite a few Westchase homes that are currently being rented, and not as well-maintained as owner-occupied homes. As homeowners grow tired of being landlords, they will put their home on the market. Inventory will increase, with the Westchase market having a greater number of homes that are in original, builder-grade condition. If that inventory is greater than the inventory of upgraded homes, the prices will decrease overall.”
Our Realtors also had some pointed advice for those Westchase homeowners looking to sell in the coming year. “Take the time to prepare your home, price it competitively in line with other regular, non-distressed resales and be realistic about your sales price,” advised Dyan and Jason Pithers.
Others particularly emphasized the importance of preparing your home for sale. Said Hart, “In order to compete with the short sales and foreclosures, an owner must paint, landscape, stage and possibly offer some closing costs.”
Ross agreed. “The maintained and good condition properties (well priced of course) do go under contract first,” she said. “When selling real estate, let your buyers see the real estate, not your personal items and clutter. They aren’t there to purchase your eight-track tape collection.”
Upgrades from original fixtures are keys to many sales, emphasized Doug and Nancy Wood. “Either the home must be priced very aggressively to make up for the lack of upgrades (essentially below market value) or the home must be upgraded and priced correctly.”
The Woods commented on another challenge: getting the buyer’s lender to agree on the sale price. “For both buyers and sellers, appraisals have become much more of a factor of reality, as most homes are purchased with financing.”
Ross concurred. “Appraisals are one of the toughest and biggest issues hitting the market hard this past year,” she observed. “Any seller has no choice except to compete with neighboring sold comparables – the good and the bad.”
If there is any consolation amid Florida real estate’s doom and gloom, it may be found in human nature. Economic bubbles and busts make clear one trend about human prognostication skills: they’re weaker than the Florida real estate market. At the height of bubbles, people tend to believe that the good times will go on forever. Fortunately, the ends of the sharp economic downturns that result from such foolishness often surprise experts as thoroughly as the bubbles’ popping did.
And while many of us are faced with staying put in our mortgaged abodes for some time to come, one look around Westchase makes one consoling truth clear – there’s no better place to bide time in Tampa Bay.
Click here to see the Realtors and Agencies that helped bring you WOW's 2010 Real Estate Special.
By Chris Barrett, Publisher; Cover by James Broome Photography
Barrett is WOW Publisher and Managing Editor and can be reached at editor@westchasewow.com.
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